We checked OSF preprint providers on Friday, May 23, 2025, for preprints that the authors had classified under the subject of "Social and Behavioral Sciences". For the period May 16 to May 22, we retrieved 40 new preprint(s).

Politics, Economics, Sociology

No classified.
Connecting Natural Language Processing and Survey Methodology: Potentials, Challenges, and Open Questions
Indira Sen, Bolei Ma, Georg Ahnert, Anna-Carolina Haensch, Tobias Holtdirk, Frauke Kreuter, Markus Strohmaier
Full text
Recent generative AI technologies, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), have increased interest in Natural Language Processing (NLP) methods for scientists and practitioners across disciplines. In this position paper, we highlight one such discipline — survey methodology, which not only uses more and more NLP techniques, e.g., using LLMs to simulate survey respondents, but also stands to benefit NLP, e.g., informing the design of NLP annotation and evaluation tasks. We argue for increasing synergies between NLP and Survey Methodology to realize the potential at their intersection. We also outline challenges that impede progress on these potential synergies and present 10 open questions to encourage further reflection.
No classified.
Online attention to DeepSeek: an altmetric study
Lucas George Wendt, Maurício Coelho da Silva, Francielle Franco dos Santos, Ana Paula Sehn
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It maps the online attention received by scientific production related to DeepSeek, through tracking carried out by Altmetric.com. It aims to characterize the online attention received by the topic through an analysis of mentions on the channels covered by the platform, as well as to assess the most common types of production, which journals or collections this production is linked to, the period in which the mentions occurred and which productions are most relevant in this context. Exploratory research with altmetric analysis, using the Altmetric.com platform in its Altmetric Explorer advanced search option, with an institutional key previously provided. The following filters were used: publisher, journal, affiliation, DOI, Orcid, funding agency, subject area, keywords, etc. The collection was carried out on February 11, 2025, with a survey carried out using keyword queries with the term "deepseek". The results obtained were exported in xls format and the data was analyzed for general altmetric impact information, such as the number of outputs tracked, the total number of mentions, the journals and repositories in which the most mentioned articles were published, the highest number of mentions, the period in which these mentions took place and the channels with the highest number of mentions. The results showed 45 research outputs since the first publications were tracked (January 2024). A total of 5,237 mentions were tracked by the platform, an average of 116.3 mentions for each search output. The first mention was in January 2024, on X, the channel where the topic began to receive attention online and remained the most relevant throughout the period. It was found that the topic has at least one mention in a variety of channels on the social web, demonstrating a significant interest from different audiences in the topic, both scientific and non-scientific. The most traditional journals are the main vehicles for publishing research, with arXiv being the first repository with the highest number of mentions (2987), followed by Nature (1498). The three most mentioned articles had at least 1000 mentions, and the first most mentioned article was published in December 2024, while the other two were published in January 2025. The conclusion is that DeepSeek has gained significant attention online, reflecting its growing relevance in the contemporary scientific and technological landscape.
No classified.
Investigating Transnational Communication on Social Media
Nicola Righetti, Azade Kakavand
Full text
This working paper introduces a conceptual framework for discussing technology affordances in relation to measurable aspects of social media platforms. Social media messages are treated as digital objects influenced by user actions, platform algorithms, and infrastructures. Introducing the concept of modulators, the framework differentiates between user- and platform-governed factors regulating affordance properties. The study applies the framework to analyze social media affordances in transnational social media communication and calls for further exploration of affordance enablers and disablers, cross-platform comparisons, and cultural influences. Further, key challenges for research are highlighted, including limited data access, algorithmic opacity, and governance variations.
No classified.
Hostility and Avoidance: Refugee Preferences in the Face of Local Attitudes and Politics
Sefa Secen, Aykut Öztürk, Sevinc Ozturk
Full text
How do local political attitudes and policies influence where refugees choose to live within host countries? This study investigates the internal mobility preferences of Syrian refugees in Turkey and Germany. Adopting a multi-method approach, we conducted a choice-based conjoint experiment with over 3,000 participants and a content analysis of qualitative survey data. The results of the experimental survey reveal that local attitudes and policies are more significant in shaping refugees’ destination preferences than economic factors and social ties. Additionally, the results of the content analysis demonstrate that Syrian refugees associate anti-immigrant local policies and attitudes primarily with exclusion, social isolation, discrimination, and heightened anxiety. Many refugees fear that such conditions and experiences may prevent them from developing a strong sense of belonging, leading them to avoid localities with restrictive policies and hostile attitudes. Our findings also demonstrate a strong deterrent effect of anti-immigration policies and discourses. From both normative and policy perspectives, we conclude that inclusive local policies and attitudes are essential for promoting refugees’ integration and psychosocial well-being.
No classified.
Environmental Fallout of India's Protracted Conflicts
Dr. Soshina Nathan
Full text
Wars are often measured by the number of lives lost and political change, but the damage they cause to our environment; land, water, air, and wildlife, are equally severe. While the environmental impacts of wars or armed conflicts have been widely studied, the effects of low-intensity and protracted social and political conflicts have not received as much attention, despite their far-reaching and often overlooked ecological consequences. India’s landscapes have been profoundly shaped by centuries of environmental change, much of which stem from a history of colonial exploitation and subsequent conflict and resistance. This paper presents a chronological analysis of the ecological consequences of low-intensity and protracted conflicts in India, beginning with the environmental legacy of British colonialism. The colonial era brought about extensive deforestation, the expansion of monoculture plantations, and the arrival of invasive species; changes all propelled by the British Empire’s economic goals and strategic ambitions. These shifts disrupted traditional land use practices, displaced indigenous communities, and laid the groundwork for many of the ecological crises India faces today. In the postcolonial period, the environmental landscape continued to be shaped by new forms of disruption: militarization in the Himalayas, armed insurgencies in regions like the Red Corridor and the North East, and growing resistance movements led by Adivasi communities in places such as Jharkhand and Kerala. Each of these phases has left lasting ecological footprints, from the breaking up of habitats and species loss, to the erosion of long-standing systems of environmental stewardship. These developments reveal how deeply today’s environmental challenges are rooted in India’s colonial legacy and the enduring struggles of its marginalized communities.
No classified.
Living on buffered time: Toward another sociology of storage
Veit Braun
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This article seeks to understand the role of storage for social time. While social theory has largely interpreted storage in spatial terms, a recent body of literature explores how cold storage technologies affect society’s relationship with time. The ability to suspend life in ice, several scholars argue, leads to a new relationship with time: the future becomes malleable as frozen cells, tissues and seeds are options with which events can be reversed, action can be postponed, and the status quo can be preserved. However, a growing number of empirical studies of cold storage complicates this hypothesis, finding that these technologies are often used to accelerate action instead. The divergence, this article argues, can be understood by linking the assumptions underlying the suspension hypothesis to sociological concepts like value, expectations, and especially practice. It argues that under certain circumstances, storage is best understood as dynamic rather than static. Taking in things and releasing them at different rates, it acts as a form of buffer that can link social activity and flows of different speeds and rhythms without imposing a shared temporality on them. On these grounds, the article pleads for a broadened understanding of storage as a social technique that affects both space and time.
Classified as: Digital Humanities, Adult and Continuing Education, Social and Philosophical Foundations of Education, Educational Psychology, Online and Distance Education, Instructional Media Design, Psychology, Science and Technology Studies
Education Reimagined in the Age of AI: Why We Learn and the Meaning of Human Labor
Erica Hu
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Since ancient times, humanity's relentless pursuit of knowledge has been a defining attribute of our species. As AI capabilities rapidly accelerate, the relationship between human learning and machine intelligence has reached an inflection point. Our antiquated education systems now stand at a crossroads, where technology offers potential to redefine the fundamental nature of learning. This dissertation argues that the rise of AI necessitates a reimagining of education, shifting away from rote knowledge acquisition to instead creativity, emotional intelligence, and lifelong curiosity—the qualities that make us intrinsically human. Human labor faces its own AI-induced metamorphosis. As algorithms automate tasks and enhance productivity, we must reexamine the deeper meaning and value of work in a society increasingly permeated by intelligent machines. What becomes of the dignity, satisfaction, and sense of purpose humans have long derived from their labors? This dissertation will investigate the social, economic, and philosophical implications of an AI-transformed labor market through an interdisciplinary lens spanning fields from anthropology and cognitive science to economics. This study contends that rather than training workers for specific skills, the schools of the future should prioritize nurturing self-directed learning and engaged citizens who can thrive in a workplace shared with AI. If education is reoriented toward cultivating humanity's unique aptitudes, we can build a future where both human and machine intelligence reach their full potential in collaboration. This outlook provides a compass to guide education leaders in adapting to an automated, AI-driven world where the meanings of learning and labor continue to evolve.
Classified as: International and Area Studies
Conflicts and Agricultural Reconstruction: Challenges Faced by Formerly Displaced Farmers under Victor’s Peace -Case of Sri Lanka
Sho Yamada, Minakshi Keeni, Katsuhito Fuyuki
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Since the Second World War, conflicts in developing countries have led to the displacement of rural residents. In Sri Lanka, an internal conflict between 1989 and 2009 displaced many rural residents. Muthur residents were forced to evacuate in 2006 and returned in 2014 on average after prolonged displacement. In this study, we aim to identify the constraints on agriculture in post-conflict settings and the roles of governments and aid donors in enhancing the recovery of their livelihoods. Through semi-structured interviews with Muthur farmers, we found conflict-induced constraints, such as deterioration in human capital, destruction of storage facilities, confusion of land ownership, constrained paddy cultivation, along with other agricultural constraints. Addressing land ownership issues and providing financial compensation are crucial for enhancing livelihood recovery in such cases. However, in intrastate conflicts, the role of the government in leading reconstruction is problematic. If land ownership issues are not resolved, development projects can harm their livelihoods.
Classified as: Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration, Communication
The Great Sysop: Elon Musk, X, and the Emergence of Platform Illiberalism
João C. Magalhães, Clara Iglesias Keller, Robert Gorwa
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This article examines Twitter’s mutation into X under Elon Musk, analyzing its shift from a mainstream platform to a far-right-aligned space. Using a dataset of over 1,500 events related to this transformation and a novel conceptualization of institutional change in trust and safety systems, we argue that three processes characterized X’s approach to content moderation: the political simplification of Twitter’s governance ecosystem, the centralization of power in Musk’s hands, and the repurposing of governance mechanisms to enforce Musk’s personal ideology. Together, these processes resulted in what we conceptualize as platform illiberalism, an emerging regime whereby illiberal-esque logics reshape speech control internally while supporting illiberal actors externally. We argue that X represents an unprecedented fusion of social media and authoritarianism, with close ties to and potential implications for democratic erosion in the US and beyond.
Classified as: Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration
How Public Administrators Empower Themselves
David S. Reed
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Public sector workers sometimes act against the wishes of management, to serve the public interest as the worker sees it. This behavior is called “guerrilla government”.This chapter examines the weaknesses of the best-known strategies for guerrilla government–whistleblowing and “speaking truth to power”--and documents lesser-known strategies that public sector workers have used successfully.
Classified as: Urban Studies and Planning, Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration
Fine-tuning the machine: Evaluating machinery of government for housing policy administration
Joshua Newman, Michaela Lang, Michael Mintrom, Adam Graycar, Julie Lawson, Jago Dodson, Jen Arnold
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What this research is about: this research explores how changes to government administrative structures and processes affect housing policy in Australia. It outlines what can be done to reduce some of the negative impacts of these changes. Why this research is important: the allocation of responsibility for areas of public policy is often called 'machinery of government'. While some Australian portfolios have remained stable over long periods, housing policy has been governed by various organisational units across the federal and state governments. Policy makers need to understand the effects of machinery of government changes, particularly in housing where debates about housing policy goals are ongoing.
Classified as: Library and Information Science
Peer Review at the Crossroads
Dmitry Kochetkov
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Peer review has long been regarded as a cornerstone of scholarly communication, ensuring high quality and credibility of published research. However, its institutionalization in the mid-20th century contrasts sharply with the 300-year history of academic journals. By the early 21st century, there emerged an opinion that the conventional model of peer review faces systematic challenges, including inefficiency, bias, and institutional inertia. The study aims to synthesize the evolution, practices, and outcomes of both conventional and innovative peer review models in scholarly publishing. Through a mixed-methods approach combining interpretative literature review and process modeling (BPMN), it identifies four frameworks: pre-publication peer review, registered reports, modular publishing, and the Publish-Review-Curate (PRC) model. While the PRC model, which integrates preprints with post-publication review, demonstrates advantages in transparency and accessibility, no single approach emerges as universally ideal. The choice of model depends on disciplinary context, resource availability, and institutional priorities. The analysis underscores the need for adaptable platforms that enable hybrid workflows, balancing rigor with inclusivity. Future research must address empirical gaps in evaluating these innovations, particularly their long-term impact on equity and epistemic norms.
Classified as: Geography, Communication
Comparing methods for determining home and work locations from geotagged social media data
Robert Goodspeed, Meixin Yuan, Ashley Nicole-Beals Bhogal, VG Vinod Vydiswaran, Daniel Romero, Matthew Willis, Tiffany Veinot
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Geotagged social media data have emerged as a rich source of insight about spatial dimensions of social phenomena. This methodological article exploits a unique dataset that combines geotagged social media content and home and work locations collected from social media users through a survey to compare three methods of assigning home locations from geotagged social media: majority voting, time frame clustering, and a novel method using activity spaces created from users’ geotagged posts. Using exact match accuracy as the measure, the basic majority voting method achieved better high estimates for both current and previous home location predictions compared to the time frame clustering method. However, for work location prediction, time frame clustering showed better accuracy, and the activity space method contained 25.3% of true home and 44.4% of true work locations. The study found lower precision than others and highlights accuracy trade-offs among each option for assigning home or work locations from geotagged social media.
Classified as: Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration
Making governments act on Sustainable Development Goals: The case of critical peer discourse in poverty relief
Pardis Akbari, Menelaos Gkartzios, Abbas Ziafati Bafarasat
Full text
There are numerous calls to revise the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to make them more attainable, but how governments can achieve this remains debated. Suggestions for SDG implementation often focus on enhanced governance models, with civil society holding governments accountable for sustainability commitments. This paper, through the lens of poverty relief via SDG1 and SDG2, advocates for a practice-oriented approach that enables deprived communities to leverage the SDGs for political gain. We argue that the poor can hold governments accountable through critical peer discourse, which refers to the exchange of critical views within communities about public policy. While critical peer discourse often generates a passive political space with limited influence on government politics, it can become a space of governmental accountability when customized around SDG1 and SDG2 indicators. To this end, a roadmap for organizing critical peer discourse is developed through controlling governmental data and informal language games with communities.
Classified as: Higher Education, Social Statistics
What influences the time to reach a tenured university professorship? Insights from machine-learning
Jasmin M. Kizilirmak, Frauke Peter
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The race to professorship is influenced by many factors, ranging from individual achievements to systemic structures. Prior research has underscored the significance of aspects such as academic productivity, institutional affiliations, and personal choices in shaping academic careers, but comprehensive analyses in specific contexts remain limited. The last two decades have seen strategic shifts within the German academic system, most notably with the introduction of junior and tenure-track professorships intended to offer a more secure career path. Yet, uncertainties persist regarding the determinants of career trajectories to tenured university professorship. Addressing this gap, this paper uses unique and novel longitudinal data of German professors to elucidate the various pathways to professorship. Based on a sample of individuals who successfully secured full university professorship, we estimate comprehensive models using machine learning to determine relevant factors that predict the time needed to reach this position. Key correlates are obtaining a habilitation, having held positions with leadership responsibilities, and disciplinary fields.
Classified as: Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration
Institutionalized respect in the algorithmic state: On the consequences of artificial intelligence for citizen-state relations
Pascal König
Full text
Making Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems in government work for the benefit of citizens hinges on functional properties such as their performance and transparency. However, the proliferation of these systems also amounts to a transformative change through which citizens face an increasingly algorithmic state. This makes it important to shift the view from AI systems themselves toward the changing quality of the citizen-state relationship. This article highlights the importance of a social-relational dimension of government AI uses for understanding how they can be problematic even when producing material benefits for citizens. It combines social recognition theory with institutionalist arguments to develop an integrative account of how AI use can reduce the institutionalized expression of respect toward citizens – and how this differs by setting of AI deployment. The framework provides a coherent approach for conceptualizing both moral implications of government AI use and non-instrumental evaluative criteria regarding citizens’ perceptions of these uses.
Classified as: Communication
Developing Culturally Competent Clinical Communication though GenAI Simulation
Shuangyu Li, Sandro Radovanović
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Introduction. Effective clinical communication in culturally and linguistically diverse contexts is essential for high-quality and equitable patient care. However, it remains challenging to teach at scale. This study introduces a novel generative AI (GenAI) platform, trained with a new Culturally Competent Communication (CCC) Guide, that can offer additional learning opportunities for students. Methods. The AI platform can simulate consultations and give students structured feedback based on the CCC Guide. A qualitative survey was used to capture fifteen third-year medical students’ experience learning with the AI platform, which was then thematically analysed. Results. The results show that the feedback based on the CCC Guide was effective in developing students’ culturally competent communication strategies. The CCC Guide offers a practical framework for clinical practice and educational interventions. The AI platform provides students with a safe and flexible space for practice. It can allow students and teachers to track and personalise learning. Discussion. This innovative approach provides another solution to the evolving trend in medical education, which is moving away from high-stakes summative assessments toward more continuous formative evaluations and blended learning strategies. The findings also pose a critical argument that GenAI tools should serve as complementary to, rather than a replacement for, human-led training.
Political Jiu-Jitsu: The Effect of Organisational Structure on Backlash of Regime Repression in Nonviolent Movements
Jan Simon Danko
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Recent studies indicate that nonviolent movements differ importantly from their violent counterparts in their dynamics and outcomes. A major – yet surprisingly understudied – mechanism for nonviolence to work is backlash of regime repression on the regime itself, what has also been coined “political jiu-jitsu”. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to research on this repression-mobilisation nexus by investigating the effect of a campaign’s organisational structure on the likelihood of backlash, understood as increased mobilisation after repression. This study uses the NAVCO 2.0 dataset, and works with a subset of annual data on over 100 nonviolent campaigns from 1945 to 2006 with maximalist goals, i.e. regime change, anti-occupation, and secession. I argue that nonviolent campaigns with a non-hierarchical organisational structure are more likely to experience increased mobilisation after repression due to their tendency to operational resilience, internal unity, adoption of new media, favourable goals, and membership diversity. Conducting a series of logistic regression analyses, I make the findings that (1) a non-hierarchical campaign structure significantly increases the likelihood of backlash, as compared to a centralised, hierarchical campaign structure. This relation holds even when controlling for campaign size and campaign year, as well as a variety of other plausible campaign characteristics. And (2) no evidence is found for interaction effects of other campaign characteristics with non-hierarchical campaign structure in its effect on backlash. This study finds an effect previously unobserved by quantitative methods, thereby contributing to an understanding of a major mechanism of nonviolent resistance. The fruitfulness of a perspective oriented on movement characteristics, especially organisational structures, for enhancing the field’s understanding is supported.
Politics Sociology
Policy Brief para prevenir la obesidad en jóvenes y adultos promoviendo la actividad física: El caso de tembici en la ciudad de Bogotá trayendo las experiencias de Lima y Monterrey
Catalina Arbelaez Hoyos, Antonia Perilla Orduz, Francisco Palencia-Sánchez, Ana Paola Islas Castillo, Diego Alesis Lara Miranda, Romina Villarreal Pérez, Andrea Cantú Rodríguez
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La obesidad y el sobrepeso son problemáticas de salud pública que vienen en aumento en años recientes a nivel mundial. En el contexto latinoamericano, se ha establecido como una de las enfermedades más prevalentes, en Colombia más del 56% de la población adulta, y con creciente incidencia en distintos contextos sociales. Existen distintos enfoques para abordarlas, siendo la actividad física una de las más importantes. En este documento exponemos los beneficios de la actividad física y de cómo la infraestructura de transporte mediante el uso de las bicicletas como medio de transporte,la construcción de ciclorrutas y la realización de la ciclovía, basados en el ejemplo de Bogotá y recogiendo las experiencias en otros contextos como el de Monterrey y el de Lima.
Politics
Public Officials' Online Sharing of Low-factual Content: Institutional and Ideological Checks
Yuehong Cassandra Tai, Yu-Ru Lin, Bruce Desmarais
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Elected officials occupy privileged positions in public communication about important topics---roles that extend to the digital world. In the same way that public officials stand to lead constructive online dialogue, they also hold the potential to accelerate the dissemination of low-factual and harmful content. This study aims to explore and explain the sharing of low-factual content by examining nearly 500,000 Facebook posts by U.S. state legislators from 2020 to 2021. We validate a widely used low-factual content detection approach in misinformation studies, and apply the measure to all of the posts we collect. Our findings reveal that the prevalence is relatively rare, affecting less than one percent of legislators' posts overall. However, Republican legislators share low-factual content at higher rates, and certain states emerge as hotspots for such content. We also find that conservative lawmakers are more likely to share such content, with this tendency potentially intensifying in conservative districts, and waning in liberal ones. Most importantly, legislative professionalism acts as a systemic constraint: lawmakers in professionalized legislatures are less likely to share low-factual content, suggesting that high professional standards curb the spread of misinformation. We conclude with a discussion of how our results present implications for future interventions to reduce the spread of low-factual content.
Politics
Good Description
Daniel de Kadt, Anna Grzymala-Busse
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What distinguishes 'good' description from 'mere' description? We propose a framework for evaluating descriptive empirical social science, premised on the idea that descriptive research -- like all empirical social science -- should be grounded in theory. First, we articulate the social scientific purpose of description, which provides criteria for assessing descriptive questions. Good descriptive questions seek to uncover facts in need of explanation, build theory, or help to evaluate and revise theory. Second, we articulate three ideal characteristics of descriptive analyses. Good descriptive analyses are clear, comparable, and complete. Such analyses should be tightly and transparently linked to specific research questions (and thus theory), well contextualized, and as comprehensive -- in their measurement and specification -- as possible.
Politics
The geopolitics of crude oil futures contracts benchmarks: RMB-denominated oil futures and the shift towards autonomy
Alexandru-Stefan Goghie
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This article explores the geopolitical implications of China’s introduction of RMB-denominated oil futures contracts, framed through the lens of ‘power-as-autonomy’. It argues that this development marks a strategic shift in the global energy landscape, particularly within the highly dollarized oil market, where pricing and trade have historically been dominated by USD-denominated benchmarks - such as Brent and WTI. By seeking to create a parallel financial infrastructure, also manifested through these RMB-denominated oil futures contracts, China is pursuing a ‘de-dollarization’ strategy aimed at enhancing its autonomy from the United States (US). Through the examination of four key geopolitical outcomes of these RMB-denominated oil futures contracts - enhancing internationalization of the RMB, the reduction of the ‘Asian premium’ in crude oil markets, strengthened energy and financial security for China, and resistance to potential US-led sanctions - this article situates China’s efforts within the larger framework of geopolitical competition between the US and China, highlighting how this shift may reshape international trade relationships and challenges the dominance of dollarized markets.
Politics Economics
Dignity, Welfare, and the Limits of Sacrifice: Axiomatic Foundations for Human Right
Daniel D. Reidpath
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The global human rights framework is failing—not from irrelevance, but from a lack of foundational coherence. Despite formal commitments, rights are routinely violated, fragmented by political will and conceptual fragility. Nowhere is this disjunction more evident than in global health and development, where institutional rhetoric masks systemic inertia. This paper argues that human rights lack a principled foundation, rendering them vulnerable to political manipulation, relativist erosion, and functional collapse. In response, it proposes an axiomatic approach, identifying three irreducible moral commitments—dignity, welfare, and non-expendability—as necessary and jointly sufficient to re-ground the framework. These axioms resist coercive power, protect against majoritarianism, and constrain cultural relativism, offering a structure capable of sustaining universality without imposing uniformity. Rather than relying on abstract theories or cultural consensus, this model works backward—asking what is minimally required for rights to function meaningfully across domains. The axioms clarify contested issues (e.g., abortion) and evaluate institutional legitimacy through a moral lens. They do not resolve all conflicts but render them intelligible and accountable. In a world where the international order is faltering and states increasingly reject moral constraint, these axioms offer a stable foundation for human rights to endure—even, and especially, when institutions fail.
Politics
Improving Use of SMART Goals in Science Diplomacy: An Overview of Concepts and Approaches
Lee Voth-Gaeddert
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The SMART goal approach (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound) can provide a robust tool within the complex field of science diplomacy. In this manuscript we present an overview of the SMART goal approach in the context of science diplomacy and compare the approach with other strategic frameworks like Theory of Change or Systems Thinking, Results-Based Management (RBM), KPIs/Scorecards, and SWOT Analysis. We present the adaptation of the SMART goal approach, originally a business management tool, to science diplomacy, highlighting the suitability for setting clear, achievable, and measurable objectives. The manuscript details each element of SMART goals demonstrating their application in science diplomacy with practical examples. The integration of SMART goals in diplomatic practices is argued to enhance effectiveness, clarity in communication, and better outcomes in international relations.
Politics
UNDERSTANDING THE TARGETING OF HEALTHCARE WORKERS IN THE SYRIAN CONFLICT: A QUALITATIVE STUDY
Agneta Kallström, Jan Parkki, Orwa Al Abdulla, Mikko Häkkinen, Hannu Juusola, Jussi Kauhanen
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Healthcare workers have been deliberately targeted in the Syrian conflict by the warring parties. The motives for targeted violence against health care are often diverse. Research on the topic is challenging since perpetrators are usually unable or unwilling to participate in the research. This study investigates the perpetrators' possible motives through healthcare workers' experiences and views. To protect health care in contemporary modern complex conflicts, it is essential to understand the motives of perpetrators of violence. This qualitative study is based on semi-structured interviews (n = 25) with professionals who have worked in Syria between 2011 and 2017. Participants were selected using a snowball sampling method and interviewed in Turkey and Europe between 2016 and 2017. The analysis was performed using content analysis. Our results indicate that the violence conducted by GoS may aim to suppress all forms of dissent and critical voices, regardless of profession, underlining the political nature of the regime's actions. NSAGs, instead, seemed to perceive healthcare workers as valuable assets to exploit. ISIS's attitude towards HCWs was predominantly political-ideological, fostering deep suspicion and intent on punishing those participating in resistance. Both GoS and ISIS were seen to use violence against health care as part of a broader pattern targeting civilians. All warring parties were considered to distrust health care and humanitarian organizations deeply.
Politics
Voter Information and Distributive Politics
Benjamin Blumenthal
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Does more information benefit voters? I examine this question in a novel setting of distributive politics and electoral accountability. Homogeneously-informed electorates can benefit from less information through improvements in the control or screening of politicians. For heterogeneously-informed electorates, I show that the distribution of resources and voter welfare is affected by the nature of informational heterogeneity and by voters’ ability to communicate with each other. When communication is impossible, less-informed voters can be better off than more-informed voters.
Politics Economics
Rethinking S&T in U.S. Diplomacy: A Path to a More Adaptive State Department
Lee Voth-Gaeddert
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Science and technology (S&T) are increasingly central to foreign policy, demanding institutional systems that can translate S&T insight into diplomatic strategy and action. Within the U.S. Department of State, integrating S&T expertise consistently across operations remains a complex challenge—one shaped more by structural limitations than by a lack of technical capacity. This paper presents a tiered and outcome-driven framework for strengthening S&T advisory capacity across senior leadership, domestic bureaus and offices, and overseas embassies and posts. Improvements are organized across three operational domains—structures, processes, and tools and trainings—and designed to achieve five strategic outcomes grounded in a theory of change approach. The framework is informed by a review of past efforts to institutionalize S&T within the Department and builds on lessons from previous reform reports while aligning with ongoing modernization initiatives. By linking recommendations to measurable implementation and outcome metrics, the framework provides a practical roadmap for embedding S&T into the Department’s decision-making culture at scale. Strengthening S&T integration is not merely a technical upgrade but a strategic shift—essential to ensuring U.S. diplomacy remains adaptive, credible, and resilient in an increasingly complex world.
Politics
Political Violence and Anti-System Voting in Interwar Italy
Edoardo Alberto Viganò, Bruno Della Sala, Stefan Stojkovic, Nils-Christian Bormann
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What is the effect of political violence on electoral support for anti-system parties? We argue that the effect of violence is asymmetric and predominantly benefits nationalist, radical-right parties. Posing as defenders of the nation, nationalist parties benefit from violence by their political opponents and violence targeted against perceived threats to the nation. Two potential mechanisms underlie this asymmetric effect. First, nationalist violence becomes an acceptable means of defense in the eyes of status quo-oriented voters if they attribute blame to out-groups who used violence first. Second, nationalist violence itself increases the salience of a threat to the nation, and voters concerned with preserving the status quo see radical right parties as its most effective defender. To test this argument, we collect novel actor-based and geospatial data of political violence in interwar Italy. Using a difference-in-differences estimator, we model the effect of violence on vote shares of anti-system parties at the municipality-level in the 1919 and 1921 elections. Our results indicate increasing electoral support for the nationalist Fascist party in municipalities that experienced violence committed by either the far right or left after the 1919 election. In contrast, the radical left Socialist party loses electoral support if violence occurs. These results are robust to different specifications, modeling choices, and measurement approaches. We conclude by discussing the relevance of our findings for violence in liberal democracies today.
Politics
Asymmetric Alliances in Climate Misinformation: A Network Analysis of the Swedish Climate Change Countermovement
Anton Törnberg, Victoria Vallström
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Climate change countermovements play a key role in spreading misinformation and delaying policy action. While research has primarily focused on the U.S., little is known about CCCM networks in other national contexts. Using social network analysis of the online Swedish CCCM, we 1) analyze the network’s composition and structure, 2) investigate potential hierarchical influences, where narratives flow from global think tanks to informal social media groups, and 3) identify ideological groupings within the network. Our exploratory analysis reveals four main communities, ranging from traditional climate skeptics to conspiracy theorists and far-right extremists. The alliances between these ideological groupings are not reciprocal: while climate skeptic sites receive numerous links from other groups, they predominantly link to scientific sources and international sites. The presence of this asymmetric alliance indicates that climate skeptic sites act as central hubs, channeling international CCCM discourses into Sweden, influencing and strategically aligning with various local ideological communities. By shedding light on the Swedish CCCM’s structure and dynamics, this study highlights the transnational nature of climate misinformation and its intersections with local populist and far-right networks.
Politics Sociology
Cultural Polarization and Social Groups: The Case of Book Banning
Clayton Childress, Craig Rawlings, Neda Maghbouleh
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Research on cultural polarization implicitly relies on two models: the spillover model, in which politics seeps into everyday life, and the consolidation model, in which everyday life is increasingly sorted into politics. These frameworks hold significant implications both for our understanding of cultural polarization, and our real-world strategies to address it. To help adjudicate between these two perspectives we examine a contemporary conservative social movement: book bans in public schools and libraries. Using vignette experiments that manipulate the social characteristics of the main characters in existing novels, our findings support the consolidation model of cultural polarization. Although Americans are inclined to judge the appropriateness of books based on the social identities of their main characters, they still generally consider stories about outgroups and rivals to be appropriate for public schools and libraries. Ideological effects are significantly attenuated by sociodemographic, psychometric, and sociometric factors that have been consolidated into parties. This suggests that even at the height of a “take-off” issue replete with consistent cueing by partisan elites and targeted campaigns by activists, popular culture remains a resource for polarized partisans, rather than a creator of them.
Politics Sociology
The Impact of Austerity on Mortality and Life Expectancy
Yonatan Berman, Tora Hovland, Carolyn Fisher
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This paper studies the impact of austerity measures implemented by the UK government after 2010 on life expectancy and mortality. We combine administrative data sources to create a panel dataset spanning from 2002 to 2019. Using a difference-indifferences strategy, we estimate the effect of cuts to welfare benefits and changes in health expenditure on life expectancy and mortality rates. Our findings indicate that these austerity measures reduced life expectancy by 2.5 to 5 months by 2019. Women were nearly twice as affected as men. The primary driver of this trend is cuts to welfare benefits, although healthcare spending changes have a larger effect per pound spent. The results suggest that austerity policies caused a three-year setback in life expectancy progress between 2010 and 2019. This is equivalent to about 190,000 excess deaths, or 3 percent of all deaths. Taking into account the years of life lost, we conclude that the costs of austerity significantly exceeded the benefits derived from reduced public expenditure. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
Economics
Natural Disasters and Haitian Emigration to the U.S.: The Moderating Role of Political Instability
Enomy Germain
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This paper investigates the relationship between natural disasters and emigration from Haiti to the United States, focusing on the moderating role of political instability. Haiti is one of the most disaster-prone and politically fragile countries in the Western Hemisphere, experiencing an average of 3.1 disasters per year between 1990 and 2020. Drawing on thirty years of national-level time series data, this study employs a linear Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model with interaction terms to test whether political instability amplifies the migration response to disasters. The results reveal a strong and statistically significant link between disaster frequency and emigration flows. Moreover, this relationship is significantly intensified in years of heightened political instability, suggesting that weak institutional capacity compounds the push factors associated with natural shocks. While traditional migration models emphasize economic drivers, this study shows that political stability plays a crucial role in shaping emigration outcomes. These findings highlight the need for integrated policy responses that address both environmental risks and governance challenges in disaster-prone settings.
Economics Sociology
国家经济学宣言：货币本质是劳动力，权属于人民——银行货币垄断是国家经济困难的根源
He Zeshou
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当前全球经济普遍低迷，我国经济也面临不少困难和挑战，并且自2017年以来人口出生率持续走低。本文深入贯彻习近平坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，通过逻辑推演发现：货币不是银行的负债凭证，而是劳动力商品的替身和灵魂，本质是劳动力，是人民生育劳动的结晶，权属于人民。进一步实证研究发现，货币发行实际是国家经济的初次分配，匹配的是国家经济增长，却被各国银行部门垄断和占有，导致人民消费力不足和利益受损，引起销售、就业和婚育困难，是国家经济困难的根源。这一深层次、结构性矛盾长期以来从未被人类社会察觉，是因为传统主流经济学在对银行货币垄断作系统性维护和掩盖。本文提出“生育铸币制度”，主张国家通过生育补助的唯一方式发行货币，以此不断提高人民收入水平，就可以稳定孩子数量，产生真实消费需求，补齐消费短板，形成拉动经济增长的稳定锚。这将破除银行货币垄断，破解当前经济困局，必将持续不断地发动社会再生产和保障充分就业，实现产销两旺，建成真正的发达国家。基于此，本文采用“宣言+论文”形式创立《国家经济学》，提出系统的理论框架和可操作的改革路径，致力于构建以人民为中心的货币、就业与经济增长新范式，为全球经济治理提供新方案。
Economics
Measuring Industrial Policy: A Text Based Approach
Reka Juhasz, Nathan Lane, Emily Oehlsen, Verónica C. Pérez
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Since the 18th century, policymakers have debated the merits of industrial policy (IP). Yet, economists lack basic facts about its use. This study sheds light on industrial policy by measuring and studying global policy practice for the first time. We first create an automated classification algorithm for categorizing industrial policy practice from text. We then apply it to a global database of commercial policy descriptions and quantify policy use at the country, industry, and year levels (2009-2020). These data allow us to study fundamental policy patterns across the world. We highlight four findings. First, IP is common (25% of policies in our database) and has expanded since 2010. Second, instead of blunt tariffs, IP is granular and technocratic. Countries tend to use subsidies and export promotion measures, often targeted at individual firms. Third, the countries engaged most in IP tend to be wealthier (top income quintile) liberal democracies. In our data, IP is rarer among the poorest nations (bottom quintile). Fourth, IP is targeted toward a subset of industries and is highly correlated with an industry’s revealed comparative advantage. We show that industrial policy is a prominent feature of the global economy and a far cry from industrial policies of the past.
Economics
The MBTI, cultural creation and self-conceptions: A case study of a subcultural meme on Chinese social media
J. Patrick Williams, Si Wu
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The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, or MBTI, has recently gained popularity among Chinese millennials and Gen Zs. Framing the MBTI has a cultural item or meme, we explore it and the subculture that has emerged around it on Chinese social media. We rely on a symbolic interactionist conception of cultural creation to show how the MBTI became known (K), useable (U), functional (F), appropriate (A), and triggered (T) on social media platforms, and how it circulates within a network of young Chinese social media users. Our analysis highlights the memetic spread of MBTI among Chinese millennials and Gen Zs in terms of a contemporary Chinese social media subculture that facilitates and supports the development and expression of non-traditional self-conceptions and identities. Using the MBTI not only provides opportunities for desirable presentations of self, but also simplifies definitions of self and other and thus helps streamline interactions among youths.
Sociology
Individual Variables Predicting Responses to Deepfakes: A Cross-Cultural Contrast.
María T. Soto-Sanfiel, Ariadna Angulo-Brunet
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This study examines the impact of the Big Five personality traits, need for cognition (NFC), and need for affect (NFA) on responses to deepfakes across different genres (entertainment, political, and cheapfakes). Data from 1554 participants in Spain (n = 782) and the United States (n = 772) were analyzed regarding narrative transportation, realism, identification, enjoyment, and parasocial interaction. The findings suggest that extraversion, conscientiousness, and agreeableness positively influence emotional and cognitive engagement with deepfakes, whereas neuroticism reduces enjoyment and connection. NFC enhances engagement with complex content, particularly in political deepfakes, whereas NFA strengthens emotional engagement, especially in entertainment deepfakes. U.S. participants exhibit higher cognitive and emotional responses than their Spanish counterparts, suggesting that cultural context moderates the impact of individual variables. These findings highlight the interplay between personality traits, NFC, and NFA in shaping deepfake reception, and emphasize the need to consider cultural factors in future research.
Sociology
Does Interethnic Contact Change How We Choose Partners? Deprovincializing Intermarriage Preferences in Japan
Stefan Aichholzer
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This study investigates how interethnic contact influences partner preferences, focusing on the phenomenon of deprovincialization, the idea that contact with ethnic out-groups leads not only to improved attitudes toward others but also a reevaluation of one’s own in-group. While previous research hints at the effect of contact in intermarriage behavior, studies have yet to explore how contact shapes individual preferences, and whether effects are universal or group specific. Using a conjoint experiment with 1,364 unmarried Japanese participants, I examine how both structural and individual-level contact with foreigners affect evaluations of hypothetical marriage candidates of different nationalities. Results show that exposure is linked to reduced preference for co-ethnic Japanese candidates, consistent with the deprovincialization hypothesis. However, openness to foreign candidates varies by nationality. Contact is associated with increased acceptance of some groups, but not others and in some cases even reinforces negative views. These findings extend contact theory into the domain of intimate preferences, giving insight into how partner preferences are socially shaped rather than fixed.
Sociology
INTERNATIONAL TOURISM AND GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY RISKS
Yingtong Chen, Fei Wu, Dayong Zhang, Qiang Ji
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The impact of international tourism on biodiversity risks has received considerable attention, yet quantitative research in this field remains relatively limited. This study constructs a biodiversity risk index for 155 countries and regions spanning the years 2001 to 2019, analysing how international tourism influences biodiversity risks in destination countries. The results indicate that the growth of international tourism significantly elevates biodiversity risks, with these effects displaying both lagging and cumulative characteristics. Furthermore, spatial analysis shows that international tourism also intensifies biodiversity risks in neighbouring countries. The extent of its impact varies according to the tourism model and destination. In addition, government regulations and international financial assistance play a crucial role in mitigating the biodiversity risks associated with international tourism.
Sociology
Practical and ethical issues in big data and machine learning forecasts of Zambian Community Forestry engagement
Thomas Pienkowski, Morena Mills, Matt Clark, Kaala B. Moombe, Henry Chilufya, Alexandros Sfyridis, Jocelyne Shimin Sze, Erik Olsson, Andreas Christ Sølvsten Jørgensen
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Approaches integrating geospatial “big data” and machine learning will likely be increasingly used to predict conservation-related human behaviour, such as patterns of local engagement, in complex socio-ecological systems. Yet, there are few examples of studies evaluating both the technical and ethical aspects of such applications. Here, we provide a nation-scale worked example that combines machine learning and publicly available data to predict spatial patterns of Community Forestry establishment among 539,221 settlements across Zambia. Our model accurately predicted out-of-sample spatial establishment patterns nearly three-quarters of the time (balanced accuracy = 76.5%, sensitivity = 64.0%, specificity = 89.1%), though had a high false positive rate (precision of 24.3%). Accurately forecasting conservation establishment patterns requires better data on local preferences and programmatic decision-making. Furthermore, such artificial intelligence applications risk making decision-making more technocratic, top-down, and opaque, so they should only inform deliberation over possible future scenarios within wider multistakeholder landscape governance processes.
Sociology
HumanityOS update
Ivo Oskar Titscher
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The paper explores the deep-seated roots of human suffering and societal dysfunction, tracing them back to fundamental shifts in human history, particularly the Neolithic Revolution. It argues that these ancient changes led to systemic errors and an intergenerational trauma cascade that continue to impact individuals and societies today. The paper proposes a multi-faceted "World Formula" as a comprehensive plan to address these issues, focusing on healing, transforming upbringing, and restructuring our relationship with shared resources.
Sociology