We checked OSF preprint providers on Friday, September 27, 2024, for preprints that the authors had classified under the subject of "Social and Behavioral Sciences". For the period September 20 to September 26, we retrieved 34 new preprint(s).

Politics, Economics, Sociology

No classified.
Generative AI Meets Open-Ended Survey Responses: Participant Use of AI and Homogenization
Simone Zhang, Janet Xu, AJ Alvero
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The growing popularity of generative AI tools presents new challenges for data quality in online surveys and experiments. This study examines participants’ use of large language models to answer open-ended survey questions and describes empirical tendencies in human vs LLM-generated text responses. In an original survey of participants recruited from a popular online platform for sourcing social science research subjects, 34% reported using LLMs to help them answer open-ended survey questions. Simulations comparing human-written responses from three pre-ChatGPT studies with LLM-generated text reveal that LLM responses are more homogeneous and positive, particularly when they describe social groups in sensitive questions. These homogenization patterns may mask important underlying social variation in attitudes and beliefs among human subjects, raising concerns about data validity. Our findings shed light on the scope and potential consequences of participants’ LLM use in online research.
No classified.
A study on the influence of social movements on political representation focusing on the minimum wage case in the mid- 2010s American states
Jihun Yeo
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This study examines how the social movement can contribute to improving political representation with the case of the minimum wage legislation in American states after 2012. The contribution of this research is that it’s an empirical analysis of how social movement affects the legislative process, especially in the agenda-setting stage and how social discourse takes part in this process, given the lack of research concerning determinants of the state legislation of the higher minimum wage, especially focusing on the influence of the social movement on the legislation. I analyze the impact of the social movement, measured by the media exposure frequency, on public opinion, the proposal of bills and the legislation with the national-level time serial and the state-level data. I investigate the impact of the social discourse on public opinion and the legislative process to illuminate the underlying mechanism where the social movement affects the political outcome. The social movement contributes to the improvement of political representation by spreading the social discourse, setting the agenda in civic and political society and triggering partisan politics for institutional change.
No classified.
Unraveling Human Social Evolution: The Influence of Patriarchy in Sexual Dynamics
Ciprian Pater
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This paper re-examines the foundations of human social structures by integrating empirical data, advanced statistical analyses, and interdisciplinary research from an- thropology, psychology, sociology, neurobiology, and evolutionary biology. It explores how factors such as sexual dynamics, neurobiological drivers—particularly the role of dopamine—cooperation, environmental pressures, resource allocation, and mutual ben- efit have shaped human societies. By incorporating case studies, refined mathematical models, and advanced statistical methods, the study enhances methodological rigor and formulates testable predictions. It addresses alternative explanations, considers confounding variables like economic conditions and technological access, and expands the theoretical framework to include evolutionary psychology and social learning the- ory. Ethical considerations and cultural sensitivity are emphasized throughout. This multifaceted approach provides a nuanced understanding of human social evolution and underscores the importance of interdisciplinary integration and empirical validation in examining the complex factors that have shaped human societies.
No classified.
Violence against women in India: Levels and trends of incidence and reporting
Aashish Gupta, Kanika Sharma
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Understanding trends in the extent of violence against women can be helpful in challenging violence against women and gender inequality. In this article, we compare the incidence of violence, as measured in the National Family Health Surveys, to the reporting of violence, as compiled by the National Crime Records Bureau. We also shed light on heterogeneity in incidence and reporting across India’s states. We find that violence against women is common, that most violence against women is not reported to the police, that violence by husbands is less likely to be reported than violence by others, and that the reporting of violence has not improved over the last decade and a half. These concerning findings highlight the urgent need for social and legal interventions to reduce violence against women, and to improve its reporting.
No classified.
A STUDY OF THE EMERGENCE OF WELFARE CLEAVAGES IN SOUTH KOREA
Jihun Yeo
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This study aims to trace the cause of an emerging welfare cleavage under circumstances where discourses on economic growth have been dominant in Korean politics. On the basis of the theories of interaction between changing social structure and social-norm dynamics, this paper explores the causes of an emerging welfare cleavage in the case of South Korea during the late 2000s. To analyze the change of economic structure and public awareness regarding public welfare, I used the data of macro-economic indicators and public opinion polls and utilized press releases to analyze discourses of political actors. The linked-policies effects of an immature “developmental welfare regime” and neo-liberal economic policies caused social polarization and expansion of the poverty stratum in the course of a slowdown in economic growth in the 1990s and foreign exchange crisis in 1998. The existing norm (i.e., economic growth could solve problems concerning people's livelihood) that had been maintained in the era of rapid economic growth was weakened. A conflict between an education superintendent and the Gyeonggi-do Provincial Council triggered a debate on free meals and welfare in 2009. Civil society groups were organized on a national scale, and they started a discourse struggle to replace individual interests with public interests and to obtain social legitimacy. Political parties gradually accepted the welfare issue as the primary electoral pledge for their political interests after public preference regarding growth and distribution changed when confronted with political crises. This study draws an implication that general factors affecting Western welfare states (e.g., power alliance and democratic institutions) influence East Asian welfare states by analyzing the case of South Korean welfare politics. It means that studies of East Asian welfare states can use explanatory building blocks partly from existing welfare theories rather than stressing the exceptionalism of East Asian welfare states. However, owing to the different economic and political structures of East Asian states from those of Western countries during the formative stage of welfare states, studies of East Asian welfare states need to consider path dependency in the historical context of East Asian political economy.
No classified.
Grit Scale and its relationship with Positive Mental Health in young medical professional
Francisco Palencia-Sånchez, Laura M. Niño Blanco, Valentina Ramírez Castellanos, Santiago Andrade Villamil, Ana M. Rendón-Garavito, Luisa Arråzola, Martha Isabel Riaño-Casallas
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Mental health in healthcare workers has been thoroughly studied throughout the years, besides perceived stress in this population constitutes a physical and psychological problem for these individuals. Different tools have been used to identify an individual's strengths to face daily activities to maintain emotional, psychological, and social well-being. Concepts such as Positive Mental Health and Grit have surged to characterize protective factors for mental health disorders. This study aimed to apply Lukat's Positive Mental Health scale and Duckworth's Grit Scale on fifth-year medical students, On the verge of becoming medical interns of the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana in BogotĂĄ, Colombia, to evaluate if there is any correlation between the results of both instruments. The results suggested that women in our sample population had on average, less Grit and less Positive Mental Health Scale score than men. The association between the two variables was made through Pearson's correlation coefficient, revealing a weak positive association between Grit and Positive Mental Health in medical students. However, further research is needed to deepen our knowledge about this relationship. These findings reflect the importance of positive mental health and Grit in medical interns.
No classified.
The Divergent Trajectory of Environmental Politics between the United States and the United Kingdom
Jihun Yeo
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This study examines factors affecting the divergent environmental performances between the U.S. and the U.K. from the perspective of social movement. I look into domestic political factors, especially social movements causing different environmental performances in two countries that attain the high level of economic growth and are under the same international factors. Given that previous research dealing with domestic political factors tends to focus on political institutions and that the comparative research on the cases of the U.S. and the U.K. are limited, this research is relevant. I utilize the EPI scores, protest data, public opinion data and party manifestos. I conclude that the strong connection of environmental movement with political parties, less dispersive social movement agendas, favorable conditions from the EU and relatively weak anti-environmental movement led Britain to making a better environmental performance than the U.S.
No classified.
From grey to black markets - Experimental data on algorithmically driven digital drift into crime on Snapchat
Kristoffer Aaagsen, Jakob Demant
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Objectives: This study examines how social media algorithms on platforms such as Snapchat contribute to the digital drift from legal to illegal content. Methods: A novel experiment was conducted using 40 covert profiles engaging with grey markets on Snapchat. These profiles engaged with legal content related to nicotine products or digital sex work. The study involved monitoring whether Snapchat’s friend recommendation algorithm would suggest connections to illegal drug dealers. Results: Within four days, 65% of the profiles were directed to drug dealers through Snapchat’s recommendations despite no prior engagement with illegal content. This shows that the algorithm can push users from legal to illegal activities directly in the app. Conclusions: The findings highlight the role of social media algorithms in enabling digital drift into crime, transforming these platforms from offender convergence spaces to facilitators of illegal activities. Further research should explore algorithmic biases and their implications for digital criminology.
Classified as: Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration, Organization Development
Development and validation of a predictive score for personnel turnover: a data-driven analysis of employee survey responses
Risto Nikunlaakso, Jaakko M. Airaksinen, Laura Pekkarinen, Ville Aalto, Pauliina Toivio, Mika KivimÀki, Jaana Laitinen, Jenni Ervasti
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Employee turnover is a challenge for public sector employers. In this study, we used machine learning to develop and validate models to predict actualized turnover of Finnish public sector workers. The development cohort data (N=52 291) included 158 variables from 2018. We defined overall turnover (regardless of reason) and net turnover (excluding workers in retirement age) through eligibility to a follow-up survey in 2020. The validation cohort included 9030 hospital workers who responded to survey in 2017, with turnover assessed in 2019. Area under the curve (AUC) value was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74-0.76) for overall turnover and 0.75 (95% CI 0.73-0.76) for net turnover. The validation yielded similar AUC values. Key predictors of turnover were younger age, shorter job tenure, and turnover intentions totaling over 70% of the net gain. Work-related exposures, of which low threat of lay-off and satisfaction with challenges at work were most important, had considerably lower predictive power (about 1% each). These results may offer insights for public sector employers in their efforts to reduce employee turnover.
Classified as: Urban Studies and Planning
La transition Ă©cologique dans les quartiers populaires. Vers plus de justice environnementale ?
Clairelou LĂ©cureur
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Ce premier numĂ©ro des Enseignements du Lab apporte une lecture transversale des rĂ©sultats de quatre projets collectifs liĂ©s Ă  la transition Ă©cologique dans les quartiers populaires. Il se concentre sur la dimension sociologique de la crise climatique, et plus particuliĂšrement sur les inĂ©galitĂ©s environnementales. Le lien entre enjeux environnementaux et inĂ©galitĂ©s n’est pas nouveau, mais il est de plus en plus Ă©tudiĂ©, notamment Ă  travers le prisme des quartiers populaires. En effet, on observe une fragilitĂ© accrue des habitants des zones de concentration urbaine de populations Ă  bas revenus aux consĂ©quences du dĂ©rĂšglement climatique. Et ce, alors qu’ils y contribuent, par leur consommation, le moins. AprĂšs avoir prĂ©sentĂ© le contexte spĂ©cifique et le potentiel des quartiers populaires pour contribuer Ă  la transition sociale et Ă©cologique, cette publication rĂ©pond Ă  la question suivante : quelles actions sont envisageables dans les quartiers populaires pour faire face aux inĂ©galitĂ©s environnementales et aller vers plus de justice environnementale ?
Classified as: Geography, Leisure Studies, Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration
Leveraging Digital Mobility Data to Estimate Visitation in National Wildlife Refuges
Samantha G. Winder, Spencer A Wood, Matthew T.J. Brownlee, Emilia H. Lia
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The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) manages over 560 National Wildlife Refuges and dozens of National Fish Hatcheries across the United States. Accurately estimating visitor numbers to these areas is essential for understanding current recreation demand, planning for future use, and ensuring the ongoing protection of the habitats, fish, and wildlife that refuges safeguard. However, accurately estimating visitation across the entire refuge system presents significant challenges. Building on previous research conducted on other federal lands, this study evaluates methods to overcome constraints in estimating visitation levels using statistical models and digital mobility data. We develop and test a visitation modeling approach using multiple linear regression, incorporating predictors from eight mobility data sources, including four social media platforms, one community science platform, and three mobile phone location datasets from two commercial vendors. We find that the number of observed visitors to refuges correlates with the volume of data from each mobility source. However, neither social media nor commercial mobile phone location data alone provide reliable proxies for visitation due to inconsistent relationships with observed visitation; these relationships vary by data source, refuge, and time. Our results demonstrate that a visitation model integrating multiple mobility datasets accounts for this variability and outperforms models based on individual mobility datasets. We find that a refuge-level effect is the single most important predictor, suggesting that including site characteristics in future models will make them more generalizable. We conclude that statistical models which incorporate digital mobility data have the potential to improve the accuracy of visitor estimates, standardize data collection methods, and simplify the estimation process for agency staff.
Classified as: Psychology, Linguistics
The content and structure of dreams are coupled to affect
Luke Leckie, Anya K. Bershad, Jes Heppler, Mason McClay, Sofiia Rappe, Jacob G. Foster
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Dreams offer a unique window into the cognitive and affective dynamics of the sleeping and the waking mind. Recent quantitative linguistic approaches have shown promise in obtaining corpus-level measures of dream sentiment and topic occurrence. However, it is currently unclear how the affective content of individual dreams relates to their semantic content and structure. Here, we combine word embedding, topic modeling, and network analysis to investigate this relationship. By applying Discourse Atom Topic Modeling (DATM) to the DreamBank corpus of >18K dream reports, we represent the latent themes arising within dreams as a sparse dictionary of topics and identify the affective associations of those topics. We show that variation in dream affect (valence and arousal) is associated with changes in topical content. By representing each dream report as a network of topics, we demonstrate that the affective content of dreams is also coupled to semantic structure. Specifically, positively valenced dreams exhibit more coherent, structured, and linear narratives, whilst negatively valenced dreams have more narrative loops and dominant topics. Additionally, topic networks of high arousal dreams are structurally dominated by few high arousal topics and incoherent topical connections, whereas low arousal dreams contain more loops. These findings suggest that affective processes are associated with both the content and structure of dreams. Our approach showcases the potential of integrating natural language processing and network analysis with psychology to elucidate the interplay of affect, cognition and narrative in dreams. This methodology has broad applications for the study of narrated experience and psychiatric symptomatology.
Classified as: Communication
Constructing Moral Authority: Affective Recognition and Ethical Visibility in Socially Oriented Branded Content
Marco Scalvini
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This article examines how socially oriented branded content contributes to public perceptions of ethical engagement, focusing on the ways brands construct moral authority through their narrative strategies. Introducing the concept of ontological erasure, the study explores how certain groups and struggles are deliberately rendered invisible or depoliticized. Through reflexive thematic analysis and semiotic analysis, the research reveals how empathy is framed selectively to align with commercial interests, transforming ethical engagement into an emotional transaction designed for consumption. The findings demonstrate how brands curate visibility and moral recognition, deciding which causes receive public attention while marginalizing others. By developing the concept of affective recognition, this study highlights the selective emotional engagement embedded in branded content and considers the implications for public understanding of social justice and moral responsibility. The theoretical contribution advances the ethics of visibility, demonstrating how the boundaries of epistemic justice are redefined within the economy of empathy.
Classified as: Other Social and Behavioral Sciences, Science and Technology Studies, Communication
A model of dialogic public engagement with genetics and genomics research
Richard Milne, Tuba Bircan, Anna Middleton
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Genetics has long been an area of substantial scientific and clinical focus. In the UK in the last decade initiatives such as the 100,000 Genomes Project and the creation of Genomics England have pioneered the incorporation of genomics into clinical care, while Our Future Health forms a cornerstone of the UK’s industrial life sciences strategy. A key feature of the genetics and genomics landscape has been attention to the importance of patient and public views – from the development of genomic research databases and UK Biobank through to ongoing policy recognition of, and commitment to, public engagement and dialogue. Despite the growing emphasis on public engagement within the field of genetics and genomics, there remains a significant gap in our understanding of how dialogic engagement - characterised by reciprocal communication and mutual learning - can be effectively measured and evaluated. Existing studies have predominantly focused on public attitudes, knowledge, and participation in genetics, yet they often overlook the deeper, qualitative dimensions of engagement that dialogue-based approaches seek to foster. Moreover, while models of public engagement have been widely discussed, there is a paucity of research that specifically addresses the unique challenges and opportunities presented by dialogic methods within the context of genetics and genomics. This study aims to address these gaps by developing a robust model and corresponding measures that capture the nuanced and dynamic nature of dialogic public engagement in this field, thereby providing a more comprehensive framework for evaluating the effectiveness of such initiatives.
Classified as: Communication
Gleaning Rural Journalism: Rural Journalists' Agricultural and Environmental Reporting Utilizing Community Storytelling Networks
Jessica Fargen Walsh, Mildred F Perreault, Gregory P Perreault, Ruth Moon Mari
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Environmental concerns are growing in parts of the rural United States as drinking water wells become contaminated with agrichemicals, and climate change impacts such as drought and extreme rain events disrupt farming practices. Analyzing in-depth interviews with 29 U.S. rural journalists, we explore the role rural journalists play when reporting on the environment as it relates to agricultural issues. Findings show that reporting about the environment—such as weather, climate change, water shortages, and droughts—appear in rural journalists' stories given those topics' relevance to their rural communities and the social systems forces exerting influence on journalists, yet rural journalists often do not perceive themselves as doing environmental reporting. Rural journalists also report lacking training and resources to do environmental reporting. This study points to the need for more support for rural journalists' environmental reporting as one way to build social change and maintain local community.
Classified as: Communication
The Economy of Suffering: Ethical Dimensions of Digital Public Health Communication During the 2022 Mpox Crisis
Marco Scalvini, Sarah Fletcher
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This study examines the ethical dimensions of health communication during the 2022 mpox outbreak, focusing on the interplay between social media and public health officials in shaping stakeholder responses. Based on semi-structured interviews, findings reveal that social media played a crucial role in information dissemination for months during the crisis, while public health officials were slow to offer clear guidance. While social media empowers advocacy and the sharing of personal stories, it also raises ethical concerns, particularly regarding how vulnerable communities may become entangled in an economy of suffering, where their experiences of pain are validated and interpreted by stakeholders through a selective mechanism rooted in cultural codes and power dynamics. Moreover, systemic inequities render the suffering of marginalized groups, particularly those with intersecting identities, less visible and intensify the consequences of inadequate outreach. This creates a disparity where the suffering of those in more privileged positions is more readily recognized and addressed. The theoretical advancement lies in reconceptualizing the platformization of pain to include narrative resistance, highlighting that marginalized groups actively contest and reshape suffering narratives rather than passively experience them. This expanded framework also deepens the concept of an economy of suffering by integrating hermeneutical injustice, which emphasizes how power dynamics shape not only the visibility of suffering but also the interpretive frameworks that validate certain narratives while marginalizing others.
Classified as: Anthropology
Testing the effect of circumscription on the evolution of social complexity in the Valley of Oaxaca, Mexico, using agent-based models
Alice Williams, Alex Mesoudi
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The initial emergence of complex societies in the archaeological record has often been explained by cultural and environmental conditions. In this paper, we formally test whether the conditions of the highly circumscribed region of the Valley of Oaxaca in highland Mexico could have intensified the formation of social complexity. The Valley of Oaxaca shows some of the earliest evidence for territorial expansion and multiple levels of internal organisation, or social complexity, in Mesoamerica and is considered a classic example of the effects of environmental circumscription. We build on our previous abstract agent-based model (Williams and Mesoudi, submitted) by incorporating real-world archaeological and environmental data from the Valley of Oaxaca to explore social complexity formation and test the impact of factors for which there is little archaeological evidence. The model results suggest that the mountainous surroundings of the valley could have contributed to social complexity formation, if we assume warfare was present throughout the time periods. However, the model also suggests that observed differences in social complexity formation between the three subvalleys of the Valley of Oaxaca were unlikely to be due to differences in circumscribing conditions. The model highlights key forms of archaeological evidence that might confirm or reject the effect of geographical circumscription in the Valley of Oaxaca.
Measuring Partisan Segregation in Political Media Consumption
Jacob A. Long
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Despite the amount of research on the topic, there are few direct measurements of partisan segregation in media use. Instead, indirect evidence, like coefficients in multiple regression models, is typically used to indicate the presence or (more typically) absence of partisan segregation. The few methods that do approximate a direct measure require dichotomizing partisanship of people and sources, which is problematic in the United States and unworkable in many other democracies. I suggest using a method originally designed to measure residential segregation to quantify the amount of balkanization in media use at the country, party, and individual levels. To show the potential of the measure, I use data from a nationally representative survey to describe the amount of partisan segregation in media consumption in the United States.
Politics
More social media, stronger regressive views? When gender equality is opposed (and when it is not) in Europe
Stefan Wallaschek, Lara Minkus
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This paper examines the relationship between social media use and gender equality attitudes in Europe, using a survey dataset from six countries (France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Spain) in 2021. By combining research on societal conflicts, gender equality, and social media use, we show that extensive use of social media (Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and Instagram) is significantly linked to regressive gender equality attitudes. The survey assesses gender equality in the labor market, LGBT rights, and perceptions of feminists. Linear regressions reveal that intense social media usage is associated with more regressive attitudes on these issues. We apply manifold sensitivity checks and demonstrate that our results remain robust against various model specifications. We discuss potential reasons why intense social media usage may trigger resentments against gender equality in Europe.
Politics Sociology
Global Finance: changing practices, actors, and geographies
Jan Fichtner, Johannes Petry
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Global finance can be seen as a complex international network of portfolio investments, loans and financial transactions shaped by various private but also by public actors. The vast profit-seeking activities of private financial actors influence capital flows, market stability, and the allocation of financial resources have an impact on corporations, markets, and governments worldwide. In other words, global finance is not a ‘neutral’ tool for price-discovery or a ‘pass-through’ segment that merely provides capital to its most efficient use in the real economy – global finance is much more than that, it is about (re)shaping politico-economic power relations in the contemporary international political economy. Before the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, private commercial and investment banks arguably constituted the core of global finance and exerted an outsized influence. However, the crisis initiated a shift in the power distribution and actors’ constellations within global finance. This new era was arguably marked by a relative decline of big banking groups – and the concomitant rise of large asset management firms (e.g., BlackRock) and other emerging influential actors such as index providers (e.g., MSCI). In parallel, the traditional center of gravity of global finance, which revolved around the axis between New York and London, was complemented and also partly challenged by the ascent of new actors such as sovereign wealth funds and financial markets from the Global South, above all China. These new actors often follow a somewhat different logic than the frequently short-term oriented and primarily profit-driven financial market actors from the Anglo-American core, since they are often permeated by government interests and consequently aimed at incorporating long-term strategic goals.
Politics Economics
Factors Contributing to the Signing of the Abraham Accords
Bowen Yi
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The signing of Abraham Accords can promote the realization of the common interests among countries to a certain extent. However, it may also trigger some conflicts among nations. This paper mainly analyzes the important factors contributing to the signing of the Abraham Accords from three perspectives: (1) the external factors -- the intervention of the US; (2) the internal factors -- the Arab and Israel’s adaptation to the current international situations; (3) other factors -- the impact of COVID-19, the dictatorship of Arab leaders, and the personal political pursuits of the leaders from other nations. In this paper, Classical Realism is used to analyze the interests between countries, and the influence of some political decisions made by relevant state leaders is supplemented by Neo-realism. Additionally, in this paper, Neoliberalism and Constructivism are also employed to analyze the negotiations between national interests, including compromise, containment, and obstruction, as well as how negotiations promote the realization of common interests. It is expected that this paper can be of some reference significance to future research on the interests between nations as well as their cooperation and conflicts in the context of globalization.
Politics
Media Capture
David Jofre
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Different from harsh censorship and state repression, media capture is a particular form of soft and indirect control of news outlets exercised by a variety of possible vested interests, including governments, corporate owners, advertisers, and digital platforms. This entry defines media capture as a political communication process with negative consequences for equality, democracy, and journalistic quality. It describes the main indicators that help identify captive media systems across different political regimes and world regions. It also discusses the main causes and types of media capture according to various contextual factors. Finally, it situates the phenomenon within the current literature, examining overarching debates on how to solve this problem in democratic and transitional regimes.
Politics Sociology
Refusal as a critique of the order of things: Bifurcations and utopian longings in contemporary rural France
JĂ©rĂŽme Tournadre
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This text questions the ‘theoretical hegemony’ that seems to characterize the concept of resistance when it comes to assessing a challenge to the social organization or its guardians. Refusal, which is presented here as a form of constructive defiance, in fact proves to be just as relevant for this purpose, particularly when it comes to understanding collective actions that are non-confrontational but express a critique of the order of things. This is what the ethnography of utopian collectives established in the French countryside tends to show. The women and men who compose them, individually driven by the desire to ‘no longer play the game’, slip collectively, on certain occasions, into the interstices of the social order, acting together in order to refuse certain of its social, political and economic norms. Their ways of doing things and the social relationships they then form can prefigure certain features of a ‘different future’.
Politics Sociology
Leaving Legacies and Liabilities: The Distribution of Wealth at Death
Franziska Disslbacher, Severin Rapp, Carolyn Fisher
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This paper leverages novel administrative data on terminal wealth in Vienna to show that Gini indices of wealth inequality at death exceed unity, with 20-30% of decedents leaving behind debt. We analyze the drivers of this distribution, finding that life-cycle effects have limited explanatory power. In contrast, bequest motives are associated with higher wealth, and a marginal increase in the share of decedents with bequest motives reduces inequality. Homeownership also correlates with higher wealth (the reverse is true for care-home residency), though housing wealth does not benefit the bottom of the distribution across districts. Finally, means-tested long-term care transfers significantly amplify terminal wealth inequality. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
Economics
Algorithmic expert services: When expert values meet scalability thinking
Cornelius HeimstÀdt, Maximilian HeimstÀdt
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In many areas of life, people who search for expert advice can now obtain it through algorithmic expert services. With these services, expert advice is generated by an algorithmic system and provided over a digital interface. Human experts disappear from direct interaction with clients, but instead orchestrate the algorithmic generation of expert advice from the back office of these services. Algorithmic expert services are often associated with the hope of making expert advice available to a large number of clients in a profitable way. However, this expectation is challenged by research on the role of shared expert values in and around organizations. In this study, we therefore explore how human experts in the back office of algorithmic expert services deal with tensions between their expert values and the imperative of scaling. Empirically, we draw on ethnographic material from a startup developing an algorithmic expert service for agriculture. We find that the human experts in the back office experience tension between their core value (i.e., reducing the environmental damages caused by pesticides) and managerial demands to maximize the app’s user retention. The experts navigate this tension by constantly experimenting with new representations of advice in the app’s interface, a process in which they repeatedly embrace their core value while simultaneously reinterpreting it, until they eventually find a way of representing advice that accommodates both their core value and the monopolistic tendencies of digital capitalism. Our study thus contributes to debates about whether expert advice can be scaled up by organizations using algorithmic means, and the role of values therein.
Sociology
The Role of Polygenic Indices in Inequality of Opportunity
Michael GrÀtz, Sonia Petrini
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Equality of opportunity is a principle of social justice, although there are different conceptions of it. We distinguish between fair and luck egalitarian equality of opportunity. Both conceptions consider to be unfair inequalities in life chances resulting from ascribed characteristics such as social origin and sex. They differ, however, in that fair equality of opportunity considers it fair when innate abilities affect life chances. Luck egalitarianism places innate abilities in the category of morally arbitrary factors that do not provide a just basis for inequalities in life chances. Empirically, we use genetic information to measure innate abilities and compare this approach to observing abilities later in life. Using genetic information allows us to better disentangle the role of innate abilities from those of environmental influences and individual choices. We apply this approach to nationally representative data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP). According to our results, luck egalitarian inequality of opportunity is considerably larger than fair inequality of opportunity, especially for education. Measuring innate abilities using genetic information leads to very similar conclusions as using abilities measured later in life, with slightly smaller differences between fair and luck egalitarian inequality of opportunity.
Sociology
Longitudinal analysis of social dynamics upon work-life exit
INVEST Flagship, Minna Tuominen, Hans HÀmÀlÀinen, Mirkka Danielsbacka, Antti O Tanskanen, Markus Jokela
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Objectives: The study examined whether transition to retirement was associated with changes in social networks and social participation, and whether these changes differed by gender, partnership status or European region. Methods: Data were derived from fourth and sixth rounds of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), collected with a 3–5-year interval from 14 European countries. The sample involved 12,885 individuals aged 50–79 (mean age 58) at the initial timepoint. Fixed-effects regression models were used to estimate within-person changes over time. Results: The results showed changes in the size and composition of social network, contact frequency with close network members, and the intensity of social participation. The most consistent change was a decrease in the presence of colleagues within the close network. By contrast, the number of relatives in the network, total frequency of social contacts, and satisfaction with the close network remained rather stable. Discussion: The retirement transition is associated with predominantly positive changes in social relationships. While relationships with colleagues fade, they are compensated by other close connections or intensified social participation, or both. However, the patterns of change vary substantially across sub-populations and geographic regions. Interaction with relatives remains mostly unaffected by retirement, demonstrating the resilience of these relationships to contextual changes.
Sociology
Flexibly Detecting Effect Heterogeneity with an Application to the Effects of College on Reducing Poverty
Betsy Alafoginis, Jiahui Xu, Jennie E. Brand, Tanvi Shinkre, Nanum Jeon
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Units of analysis in social research do not respond uniformly to events and interventions. Yet it is not always clear which axes of heterogeneity are most important to consider before data analysis. We use causal forests to nonparametrically uncover heterogeneous treatment effects. We then adapt causal forests and advance causal mediation forests to assess heterogeneous direct and indirect effects. This novel adaptation explores heterogeneity in the causal paths linking a treatment to an outcome through a binary, multinomial, or continuous mediator. Both causal forests and causal mediation forests robustly adjust for high-dimensional confounders, yielding asymptotically normal and n1/2 consistent estimates. We show that forest-based approaches often outperform alternative methods in identifying effect heterogeneity. We apply the forest-based methods to study the heterogeneous effects of four-year college on reducing poverty with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 and 1997 cohorts and find large gains for disadvantaged youth.
Sociology
The impact of the kingpin strategy on extortion and kidnapping
Patricio R Estévez-Soto, Reynaldo Lecona Esteban
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The ‘kingpin’ strategy focuses on dismantling criminal groups by apprehending their leaders. However, existing evidence indicates that removing a criminal leader may lead to a surge in organised crime-related homicides, and to spatial displacement of organised crime violence. This study explores the strategy’s impact on other organised crimes, specifically extortion and kidnapping. Analysing Mexican data from 2011 to 2015, we employ a novel matching method for cross-sectional time-series data to assess how leadership removals affect the incidence of extortion and kidnapping, and whether there are any displacement effects. Our results reveal a significant rise in extortions within 6 months of a leadership removal in a municipality, while kidnappings show no significant change. Notably, no spatial displacement effects were observed in neighbouring municipalities post-removal. These findings underscore the unintended consequences of the kingpin strategy, emphasising the need for alternative policies to address organised crime-related violence.
Sociology
Austerity as reproductive injustice: Did local government spending cuts unequally impact births?
Laura Sochas, Jenny Chanfreau
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Large local government spending cuts in England, spanning over a decade of austerity politics, have severely restricted the universal services and public goods that shape parenting environments. Drawing on the Reproductive Justice framework, we ask whether restricting the right to parent in safe and healthy environments impinged on the right to have children. To do so, we introduce a new quantitative approach for “thinking with” Reproductive Justice. Using nationally representative UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) data and a within-between random effects model, we analyse whether local government spending cuts were associated with intersectional inequalities in childbearing over the 2010-2020 period. We find that local government spending cuts significantly decreased the probability of having a(nother) birth for women in the poorest households, by 9.1%, but not for women in the middle or richest households. Further, racially minoritised women across income categories were much more likely to live in local authorities that suffered substantial cuts. Although austerity policies may not have directly restricted people’s biological capacity to conceive, our findings show that local government austerity cuts unequally restricted the right to have children.
Sociology
Who Climbs the Ivory Tower? Social origins of academic faculty in an egalitarian welfare state
Nicolai T. Borgen, Are Skeie Hermansen, Astrid Marie Jorde SandsĂžr
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While there is extensive literature on intergenerational mobility in education, including the transition to PhD, much less is known about the transition to academic faculty. In this paper, we use unique register data following entire birth cohorts born from 1955 to 1985 in Norway, an egalitarian welfare state, to investigate the social origins of academic faculty. Despite free public higher education and PhD positions with competitive wages, potentially removing many barriers to entry, we find large and stable differences in the likelihood of becoming faculty members by parental education, earnings, and whether parents are faculty members. However, while the likelihood of becoming a faculty member varies widely depending on social origins, sorting into faculty positions seems to be explained mainly by differences in obtaining a PhD. Once we compare individuals with PhD educations, social origins do not seem to constitute an additional barrier to becoming a faculty member. Nevertheless, social origins influence the likelihood of obtaining a position at more prestigious institutions, and faculty members from more advantageous backgrounds have higher earnings. Thus, social origins shape academic careers beyond their effects on entering academia.
Sociology
Staying fed: Kin networks and food security in informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya
Nikita Viswasam, Betsy Alafoginis, Kenneth Leonard, Elizabeth Kimani-Murage, Sangeetha Madhavan
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Informal urban areas house an increasing share of urban growth on the African continent, with corresponding challenges in sustaining urban household food security and preventing childhood malnutrition. In a landscape of shrinking public safety nets, an unfavorable employment landscape, and the rising cost of natural disasters, kin support networks may offer resilience against the vulnerability of households with young children impacted by structural failures in urban food systems. We evaluate the role of kinship support in strengthening household food security and young children’s dietary diversity – and the influence of relative socioeconomic status (SES) on these relationships - in two informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. Using four waves of longitudinal data on 1,194 mothers collected between March 2022 and October 2023, some captured during periods of food inflation, we find that 1) larger kin support networks offer protection against severe food insecurity for some households, but heighten food insecurity risk for others 2) household SES and network SES feature in reciprocal kin support dynamics that affect the direction of food insecurity outcomes, however 3) larger kin support networks improve children’s dietary diversity, regardless of household and network SES. In contexts of resource-interdependence, researchers should scrutinize the impact of current and proposed policies and programs on stratified food access, particularly on low-income extended family networks that are sensitive to changes in food prices and structural economic changes.
Sociology
The role of family structure in women’s mental well-being: Do family stressors influence mental health gaps between lone and partnered mothers?
Cadhla Mcdonnell, Pablo Gracia
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Lone mothers have been found to report lower average mental health than partnered mothers. Following the ‘stress process model’, disparities in women’s mental health by family structure could be explained by lone mothers’ higher exposure to multiple forms of stressors, compared to partnered mothers. Yet, this hypothesis has not been tested in previous studies. This study analysed four waves of longitudinal data from the Growing Up in Ireland study, spanning between the year when women gave birth (2008) to nine years later (2017) (N = 5,654 women), to examine how family stressors (i.e., financial strain, caregiving strain, work-related strain, and parental conflict) influence women’s depressive symptoms by family structure. Analyses applied random-effects models and Karlson-Holm-Breen (KHB) decomposition techniques, combined with different model specifications as robustness checks (i.e., fixed-effects). Results indicate that: (1) net of sociodemographic factors, lone mothers experience higher levels of depressive symptoms than partnered mothers, with additional analyses confirming that transitioning from partnered to lone mother is associated with higher depressive symptoms, and from lone to partnered mother with reduced depressive symptoms; (2) although 41% of the observed statistical association between family structure and mothers’ depressive symptoms is direct, a larger 59% of this mental health gap is mediated by inequalities between lone and partnered mothers in their exposure to family stressors; and (3) the largest share of the observed mediation by family stressors is explained by lone mothers’ higher risks of current and past caregiving strain and parental conflict, but also by their current higher financial strain. Overall, this study suggests that lone mothers’ lower mental health, compared to partnered mothers, is largely explained by disparities in exposure to family stressors, pointing to how accumulated caregiving and parental stressors, as well as poverty risks, are key explanatory factors behind the mental well-being disadvantage that lone mothers face.
Sociology
‘Influencing the influencers’: Exploring the impact of an in-person summit on TikTokers’ mental health communication habits and beliefs
Meng Meng Xu, Elissa Scherer, Rebecca Robbins, Yuning Liu, Matthew Motta, Amanda yarnell
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Social media platforms such as TikTok hold tremendous promise for reaching large proportions of the general population with health messaging. However, the proliferation of health misinformation on these platforms poses a significant public health risk. Partnerships between public health experts and social media content creators are a novel intervention which may overcome concerns about misinformation and catalyze the proliferation of evidence-based health messages on social media. To build such partnerships between creators and mental health and health communication experts, The Center for Health Communication (CHC) at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health held an in-person summit that attracted mental health creators working on TikTok and other social media platforms. Over the course of two days, creators were exposed to techniques for communicating evidence-based research and recommendations that promote mental health. Following the summit, creators who attended the summit were re-contacted for in-depth interviews to assess the summit's impact on their beliefs and behaviors. Results reveal that attending the summit changed creators’ content-making behaviors, increased their sense of responsibility and awareness of their power to impact mental health outcomes among social media users, validated their work and motivation as health communicators, and created a much-needed community of support among peers. Given that social media is a primary source of health information for many people, our findings provide a blueprint for public health communicators hoping to build lasting strategic relationships with today’s most influential media gatekeepers.
Sociology